WHY RAILA WILL LOOSE IN 2012 POLLS.

After a grueling battle spanning for some two decades and counting, we eventually got ourselves a new document to govern us and guide our leaders in leadership. That in mind we can as well take stock of what the brandy statutes heralds.

Many of our politicians are now afraid of what will become of them after the imminent polls. This will and has already forced many into drawing boards with an aim of carving for themselves alliances that will safeguard their entry into posts and offices of influence. This will be done and achieved as they will be bled out of tribal affiliations and connections in the name of our time.
Mark you, the law and NCIC at this point becomes mare rhetoric.

Caught in this race that’s fueled by greed for power is the veteran activist and reformist of all time in Kenya, Raila son of Odinga.The second Kenyan PM is today a domestic name and almost every opinion poll will tell you that Raila is the 2012 presidential favorite. For sure the 2007 contest can easily illustrate that he is a force to reckon with.

Gunning for the same post is the son of the founding father Uhuru Kenyatta who serves as Raila’s deputy and finance minister not to mention that the outgoing president seems to have a soft on him when it comes to succession. Another contender is the envoy of shuttle diplomacy Kalonzo Musyoka and the vocal yet witty Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

Unknown to Raila is that this last bunch of politicians is no ordinary rot. And while they seem to wage a front battle headed for the same award competitively, all of them view Raila as common enemy. That aside they all want to sell Raila out as a betrayer since all of them have tasted the PM’s charismatic approach to rivals.

Towards 2002 elections Raila betrayed Uhuru .One easily recalls when Raila pulled his NDP out of KANU leaving Uhuru the project and Moi the project initiator for the dogs.NDP teamed up with NAK to form the mighty unstructured rainbow alliance that granted Kibaki entry to the house at the top. These bitter herbs are still vivid to Uhuru and his fanatical enthusiasts

The same Raila betrayed Kalonzo towards the 2007 contest. They fought together to floor the banana constituon in 2005.This begot the Orange opposition front which Raila as the possible flag bearer. Kalonzo tried to gain control of the orange but he was no match for the son of our first VP. He quit the Raila Orange and fronted Julia Ojiambos Orange that has a K somewhere. Don’t you forget Kalonzo has his support in the Eastern province of Kenya.

Down to Ruto. He was an avid champion of the Raila policies. Successfully he marshalled Rift Valley to support Raila in his quest and true to it the response was overwhelming. Not long after the polls, Ruto and Raila could not agree on simple party issues and this filtered to national issues such as Mau saga and the dreaded ICC phenomena. Today Raila and Ruto cannot take tea together and majority of Rift Valley voters can hardly trust Raila with their votes.
Clearly all these men have a reason to eye Raila with venom. Raila appears too strong for each individual; and this demands an alliance.

But still these three men cannot just join hands at this early point. The law gives the specific victory threshold for presidency. Therefore all three are likely to go for the ballot, and then whoever comes second after Raila takes re-run with all their combined influence to beat the ODM principal.
Should this succeed then Raila goes out into the political cold a long period of five years and when we go for 2017 elections he will be so irrelevant. Mark you this is  if and only if Ocampo does not succeed in his endeavour of holding some people captive for crimes against humanity.

     The writer  Kamau wa Kamlesh
Is a  political and socio-economic analyst